Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Populists It is fashionable to denigrate those who purport to despise Donald Trump and the various other ‘populists’ as being out of touch. Anyone celebrating Geert Wilders relatively poor showing in the Dutch election is warned that nationalism is still on the rise. It is indeed a mistake to write off Trump, Wilders, Le Pen and others – they are astute operators playing on legitimate fears. It is also a mistake to write them off because their policies are bordering on the idiotic – we are all capable of believing something because we want to despite evidence to the contrary. Yes, it is wrong to belittle Trump et al but it is not wrong to believe passionately that these people will in the long run make us all worse off. Take Donald Trump. He is no idiot but he has a dangerous narrow view of the world and despises diplomacy. His refusal to play by the rules could be refreshing but the most likely consequence seems to be bitter infighting in the White House. Other leaders will exploit this and use it to their advantage and the US’s disadvantage. His insistence on alienating America’s friends for no good reason has no logic apart from keeping his core support happy. It is ironic that the leader of the liberal world is now Germany. In some ways, Angela Merkel has shown courage. She said that Germany needs immigrants to offset its demographic problems, something that is very true though she got little credit for doing so. The German economy continues to perform well with a productivity record that is as good as the US’s. But the Germans have also made mistakes. They have less than generous in ensuring the euro’s survival. Their insistence on austerity has played into the hands of populists around Europe who blame immigrants for poor economic performance. The one thing that is working in liberals’ favour is the mess the British have got themselves into. The victory of the Brexiteers continues to be Pyrrhic with their visions of a post EU free trade paradise looking completely delusional. The cold reality is that the foreign exchange markets continue to take a very dim view of Brexit, a process that is proving to be enormously complicated and likely to cost tens of billions. As the name suggests, populism can be popular but that does not make it right. Despising populists is of no use to anyone but demonstrating the benefits of internationalism and liberalism is. Economic integration works and immigrants generally add value to an economy. The fallacies of mercantilism were demonstrated a long time ago. Liberals may not have all the answers and being human they make mistakes. But they generally go in the right direction which is more than can be said for D Trump and his acolytes.