The USA, Russia and the EU.

The recent Helsinki summit between Trump and Putin has set the cat amongst the pigeons in diplomatic circles. Trump’s desire to ‘get along’ with Putin and Russia has been declared treasonous by many former American diplomats. The Europeans are feeling somewhat left out in the cold faced with threats to the NATO alliance, rising tariffs on exports to the US and outright contempt by many US politicians. What should they do in these circumstances? Why not do something really radical and heretical like getting into bed with the Russians? Before one is accused of treason for advocating a liaison the West’s traditional enemy, think of it like this. The world has changed in the last 30 years from a bipolar one of the West dominated by the USA against the communist East dominated by the Soviet Union into a multipolar one. We still have the USA as the world’s dominant power. Rising fast is China which has not only a rapidly growing economy but 4X the population of the US. We have Europe, which has a larger economy than the US but a fragmented political system. Finally we have Russia, the remnant of the old Soviet Union and the world’s biggest country by land mass. The thing to remember about Russia is that its economy is not that large, ranking only 11th in the world nor is its population at 145m that great, a bit over 40% of that of the USA and a tenth of China’s. What makes Russia great is its landmass and its history not just that of the Soviet Union but the old Russian Empire of the Romanovs. She wants to remain a major power in world politics but is constrained by the relative size of her economy. To succeed as a major power, she can no longer rely on might but instead she needs to be a nimble operator, as recognised by her current president, Vladimir Putin. In many respects Putin has played this game well with successes in Syria and the alleged interference in domestic US politics. Other escapades have proved to be less successful, for example the Ukraine where Russian backed separatists have stalled. This has proved costly for Russia because of Western sanctions and illustrates Russian weakness, which remains the economy. This shows why Russia may be open to a deal. Russia remains overly dependent on energy and has failed to diversify its economy. Capital continues to flow out of the country. The removal of sanctions and greater integration into the European economy would make Russian respectable again and would be a big boost for the Russia economy. This is important for Russian political ambitions which inevitably cost money. The downside for Russia would have to be admission of guilt for previous sins such as the downing of the Malaysian Airlines plane and restrictions on meddling in the affairs in Europe. There would be several benefits for Europe. As with Russia, the obvious one is the economic benefits that would accrue to Europe with increased trade. In addition, there should be a reduction of tensions in the Eastern Europe, particularly in the Balkans. It also might make it easier to tackle corruption in Eastern Europe. The third benefit would be a demonstration of independence from the US. It may be that NATO is indeed finished and Europe needs to start thinking seriously about its future security independently of the US. It would be a demonstration of European integration and clout. There are many reasons why such a deal is highly unlikely. Mr Putin is undoubtedly enjoying playing with Mr Trump and may consider Europe not worth the trouble. The Europeans may think that Mr Trump will not be in the White House for much longer and normal service will be resumed shortly. Could Europe trust Mr Putin not to renege on any agreement after a short period by causing trouble say in the Baltic States or the Balkans? Any agreement would have to allow the Ukraine to fall back within Russian orbit which would be a major betrayal. Another issue would be that if the Americans have the clout to deny Europe any flexibility with Iran, they have the clout to deny any independent deal with Russia. Finally of course the Americans might realise that treating the Europeans with contempt might not be in their best interests. All these are valid points and there may be many other objections. But there is no harm in exploring the issue and one never knows.