Ukraine. The recent events in the Ukraine and more specifically the Crimea have raised global tensions but it is not at all clear what conclusions have been reached and who, if anyone, has won or lost. Let us take Russia first. President Putin has played his hand tolerably skilfully, first threatening confrontation and then withdrawing that threat but leaving a clear signal that Russia has vital interests that must not be ignored by the West. Russia has probably won this battle but otherwise is struggling. There is little doubt that the latest upheaval in Kiev has gone against Russian interests and the majority of Ukrainians have clearly shown that they do not want to be part of a Russian sphere of influence, no matter how close the two peoples are culturally. Even the Russian speakers in the east of the country have not shown much enthusiasm for Russia itself, certainly not in the way that those in the Crimea have. Secondly, the Russian economy is seriously underperforming despite its energy riches and capital and people continue to leave. The population is rapidly shrinking thanks to a low birth rate and high death rate, not helped by high incidences of alcoholism and AIDS. Thirdly, Putin has used Europe’s dependence on Russian gas supplies as a lever to get his way in the Crimea but in the long run that will encourage Europe to seek other sources of supply. As regards the Ukraine itself, the Crimea is a side issue. Certainly, Russian belligerence has demonstrated how weak the Ukraine is but that was common knowledge. The Crimea only became part of the Ukraine in 1954 thanks to some shenanigans by Khrushchev and there are no real cultural or historical connections between the two regions. What is crucial for the Ukraine is to get its economy sorted out with help from the West and to keep the Russian part of the country and its oligarchs onside. This will not be easy and the historical precedents do not fill one with confidence. The Crimean crisis has shown the West to be rather weak in the face of Russian belligerence. It has not done President Obama any favours, with the conclusion being that he has been outsmarted by Putin yet again following on from the Syrian chemical weapons fiasco. But the Crimea was not a war worth fighting and talk of sanctions against Russian businessmen seems wide of the mark given that the West wants to encourage Russian capital to continue leaving the country. The key interest for the West as mentioned above is to get the Ukraine economy out of trouble through a generous aid package, and if the Ukraine cannot deliver its side of the package by implanting the necessary reforms, then maybe the conclusion is Russia is welcome to the country. Ultimately, the West has to negotiate with Russia; if Russian wants the Crimea and the Crimeans want to be Russian, then so be it. That is a small price to pay for bringing the Ukraine into the West’s sphere of influence and simply demonstrates just how weak Russia really is.