Sunday, August 3, 2014
US economy. Growth in the US was 4% in the 2nd q, more than eradicating the decline of 2.1% in the 1st q, something that looks anomalous. The economy seems to be growing just over 2%; it has been 2.2% over the last 2 and 4 years. Employment growth is about 1
.7%pa meaning that productivity growth is roughly 0.5%pa. This is miserly, well below the 1990s level of 2%pa and as with the UK suggests there is a productivity paradox out there. But on the other hand, the number of jobs out there is increasing at a fairly rapid rate, greater than the rate of population growth and sufficient to reduce the level of unemployment. It all rather suggests that the economy is gradually healing. Consumption is growing at a similar pace, investment at 3.5% and exports at 4.4%. The real drag on the economy has been government consumption which has declined by 1.2%. Trade has been a spur to growth although recently import growth has outstripped exports so reducing that spur. Nominal GDP growth is 4.0%, implying a deflator of 1.8%, and there is little evidence of nominal GDP growth accelerating. This suggest that the Federal Reserve is right to gradually reduce the taper and equally right to being cautious about tightening monetary policy.
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