Sunday, February 1, 2015
Should Greece leave the euro? The answer is probably yes. A Grexit is is almost universally portrayed as a disaster but to whom? Would it be a disaster for the Greek people? Possibly but possibly not; it depends on how Greece runs its affairs post a Grexit. In the immediate aftermath of a Grexit, there would be banking chaos as Greek banks went under with deposit outflows and assets overwhelmed by euro denominated debt. But is this a disaster - who cares for the Greek banks? The Greek people would benefit almost immediately from the sharply realigned exchange rate, an immediate external devaluation rather than the grinding and painfully slow internal devaluation. The one valid argument against a Grexit is that the internal devaluation is forcing a massive restructuring on the Greek economy turning it into something close to a modern competitive one on a par with the rest of Europe. A Grexit would stop that process which would be a shame. There is good evidence that the Greek economy is benefitting from its restructuring and the economy is growing again albeit after a 25% contraction. But the problem is that the debt burden is still rising. The economy is not growing fast enough to allow that burden to fall and the blame for that is Germany. If Germany wants Southern Europe to restructure, it must pursue a domestic agenda that will allow those economies to grow fast enough to repay their debt, and that means inflation. Inflation within Germany would allow the readjustment between German prices and South European prices to happen much more quickly than it is currently. Driving down the value of the euro does not help; that principally helps German exporters and does not affect the relative prices between Germany and her fellow euro members. Other arguments against a Grexit are specious, and are mainly to do with protecting European banks. When European politicians argue that a Grexit would be disastrous, it is not the Greek people they are thinking off but rather it is the impact on European banks that concerns them, who would be forced to write off Greek debt and bankrupt themselves in the process. We see a Japanese scenario here from the early 1990s; do whatever to protect the banks and avoid an extremely painful but necessary restructuring. The sad thing about the whole mess is that the extremist political parties who are benefitting from it are probably right.
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