Growth. Attempts to forecast the short term outlook for the global economy are futile and more than likely to leave the forecaster with egg on his or her face. As an example, I forecast a pick-up in activity in mid-year based on some of the monthly indicators but little materialized. Four months later, I am tempted to say the same again and I could be encouraged by the rise in bond yields and the performance of equities over the last two months. But attempts at such forecasts are missing the point. What the weekly and monthly statistics are telling us is that there little volatility in economic data, and that overall growth is weak to moderate with no inflation and low interest rates. JP Morgan’s PMI index declined gradually from a level of 54.0 in March 2015 to a low of 51.1 in May of this year and has risen to 51.7 since then. At no point did they suggest a decline in activity. The OECD lead indicator says much the same thing. The best answer to a forecast about growth is basically more of the same. Indeed, the real problem with OECD economies has not been growth per se but interest rates, particularly the structural decline in real rates. As equilibrium nominal rates have trended toward zero, monetary policy has become ineffective and attempts to boost growth through yet more monetary stimulus have largely failed. Slowly but surely OECD governments are waking up to the issue and it will be interesting to see if a greater fiscal stimulus will have more success in boosting growth.