UK Election 2017 – post mortem Along with many others, last week’s UK election has proved somewhat humbling, not only because I completely underestimated Jeremy Corbyn but I also got the mood of the country very wrong. That said, I found election night riveting and the result encouraging and a victory for democracy. Last Thursday, I wrote that the Conservatives would win handsomely based on ‘a safe pair of hands’ for Brexit negotiations, that Corbyn would not be taken seriously by the electorate and that the voting would be dominated by the ‘golden oldie’ brigade. None of these proved to be true. The Conservatives ran a poor campaign, perhaps as a result of over-confidence and their policies just did not resonate with the electorate and were badly and confusedly presented. The electorate blamed Tory austerity for the problems of the NHS with some justification. Labour on the other hand ran a very good campaign partly because that is something Corbyn is extremely good at, another factor the Conservatives underestimated. And finally it was good to see the younger generation coming out to vote in far greater numbers than in the past. It is hard to judge what factor Brexit played in the election. The collapse of UKIP was significant but it is open to debate who it benefited. The election result has seriously weakened the UK’s negotiating position with the EU as it has the position of the ‘hard Brexiteers’ within the Tory party. The position of the Conservatives would have been even worse had it not been for the gains they made in Scotland and the Scottish Tories are very much on the soft side of ‘Brexit’. The DUP, the new putative allies of the Conservatives in Westminster, also have their demands vis-à-vis trade with the Republic. Ultimately it is probable that the electorate are somewhat bored with Brexit and are more concerned over other issues such as the NHS and social spending. Just get a deal done that is not too disruptive to trade but reduces the number of immigrants seems to be the message. The other political trend that got a bloody nose last week was populism. It is likely that the travails of Donald Trump have given populism a deserved bad name and got a bit of protest vote out. Jeremy Corbyn is the very antithesis of Trump unlike Theresa May. It is noticeable how much more self-confident the EU is helped by the success of Macron in France and stability of Merkel compared to the antics of Trump. So British politics is now extremely fluid and unpredictable which is good news for those of us who find such things fascinating even if we are no good at predictions. Who knows how long May will last or the Conservative government or what the final outcome of Brexit will be? Everything is up for grabs. And we not even mentioned the SNP!

UK Election 2017 One of the intriguing issues about British general elections is how everyone hangs on the latest opinion poll, and 2017 has been no different from previous elections. The start of the election campaign saw the Tories way out in the lead and looking to romp home with a majority well in excess of 100 and the Labour party down to 150/160 seats (out of 650). Since then the Tories have stumbled over a number of issues most notably the ‘dementia’ tax and Jeremy Corbyn has performed much better than expected. The result is that one or two recent opinion polls have suggested that the UK might end up with a hung parliament. Such an outcome is of course possible but highly unlikely. If, as I expect, the Tories win with a majority of over 70 and possibly 100, questions will be asked as to why, yet again, the opinion polls got it so wrong. But this is the wrong question; a more pertinent one is why we believed the opinion polls in the first place. One reason is that too many people just don’t understand sampling errors, and most opinion polls fall within that margin of error, i.e. they don’t get it wrong. Another is that the answer given to opinion pollsters is different from how people actually vote. Pollsters being intelligent people do try to correct for that bias but it is not easy. And the third reason is that people need a story to make the election more interesting and what better than a rogue opinion poll. As regards today’s election, the reason the Tories should win with a handsome majority is that once inside the polling booth, voters will go for a ‘safe pair of hands’. Corbyn may have the ability to connect with voters, and he is a moral, decent person but few people will trust him to run the country which is what matters. He has also equivocated on Brexit and again voters want a PM who will make the best of what is likely to be a tortuous, fraught negotiation with the EU. As a committed ‘Remainer’ I find the whole thing depressing. And for those who are interested in the intricacies of polling, I would recommend Nate Silver and https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-three-scenarios-for-the-u-k-election/