UK Election 2017 One of the intriguing issues about British general elections is how everyone hangs on the latest opinion poll, and 2017 has been no different from previous elections. The start of the election campaign saw the Tories way out in the lead and looking to romp home with a majority well in excess of 100 and the Labour party down to 150/160 seats (out of 650). Since then the Tories have stumbled over a number of issues most notably the ‘dementia’ tax and Jeremy Corbyn has performed much better than expected. The result is that one or two recent opinion polls have suggested that the UK might end up with a hung parliament. Such an outcome is of course possible but highly unlikely. If, as I expect, the Tories win with a majority of over 70 and possibly 100, questions will be asked as to why, yet again, the opinion polls got it so wrong. But this is the wrong question; a more pertinent one is why we believed the opinion polls in the first place. One reason is that too many people just don’t understand sampling errors, and most opinion polls fall within that margin of error, i.e. they don’t get it wrong. Another is that the answer given to opinion pollsters is different from how people actually vote. Pollsters being intelligent people do try to correct for that bias but it is not easy. And the third reason is that people need a story to make the election more interesting and what better than a rogue opinion poll. As regards today’s election, the reason the Tories should win with a handsome majority is that once inside the polling booth, voters will go for a ‘safe pair of hands’. Corbyn may have the ability to connect with voters, and he is a moral, decent person but few people will trust him to run the country which is what matters. He has also equivocated on Brexit and again voters want a PM who will make the best of what is likely to be a tortuous, fraught negotiation with the EU. As a committed ‘Remainer’ I find the whole thing depressing. And for those who are interested in the intricacies of polling, I would recommend Nate Silver and https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-three-scenarios-for-the-u-k-election/